Only 13 Countries Meet Paris Agreement Deadline for NDC 3.0: Urgency Grows as COP30 Approaches

By Baboloki Semele– The clock is ticking, and the world is watching as climate action under the Paris Agreement faces a critical test. With a deadline of 10 February 2025 set for the submission of updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs); the climate action plans that define how countries will contribute to limiting global warming, a press release from Economic Commission for Africa says only 13 of the 195 parties to the agreement have submitted their NDC 3.0 documents on time. Among the few nations that met the deadline, Zimbabwe stood out from the African continent, having successfully communicated its updated NDC by the prescribed date.

In a world already reeling from the impacts of climate change, the slow response from countries is raising alarms. At the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake (GST1) at COP28 in December 2024, it was revealed that the world is far off course to meet the Paris Agreement’s critical target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The cumulative impact of the pledges made in the NDCs — before they were updated — had put the planet on a path toward a 3-degree rise in temperature by the end of the century. This stark reality underscored the urgency for governments to submit more ambitious and updated climate plans, as recommended during GST1.

Yet, by the deadline of 10 February 2025, only 13 countries including Zimbabwe, United Kingdom, Brazil, United States of America, Uruguay, and New Zealand had communicated their revised NDCs, signaling a worrying lack of urgency from most of the world’s largest emitters.

This low participation rate has serious implications for the global climate response. According to the African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC), the slow pace of submissions is particularly concerning, as only a handful of countries are taking the necessary steps to ensure that the Paris Agreement’s goals are met. ACPC Director, commenting on the delay, said: “The urgency of the climate emergency cannot be overstated. This lack of progress is not only alarming but also a setback in our collective efforts to combat the global climate crisis. The longer we delay, the more severe and irreversible the consequences will be for the planet and its people.”

The Paris Agreement’s Call to Action

The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, requires all 195 parties to submit their NDCs every five years to assess progress and strengthen their commitments. The most recent milestone the first Global Stocktake (GST1) held during COP28 in Dubai in late 2024 reviewed the progress of these commitments and found that the world was heading for a catastrophic level of warming. The stocktake’s findings underscored the urgent need for countries to adopt more ambitious targets and align their climate strategies with the 1.5°C goal. UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell remarked at COP28, “We are failing to meet the pace required to stay within the limits of what is scientifically necessary. Climate action must be immediate, bold, and decisive.”

Despite this warning, only a few countries have acted decisively by submitting their updated climate plans on time. ACPC commended Zimbabwe for its timely submission and expressed its commitment to helping other African countries meet the upcoming deadlines, noting, “We are proud to have supported Zimbabwe in this important milestone and will continue to work closely with other African member states to ensure they meet their climate obligations ahead of COP30.”

The Dangers of Delayed Action

The consequences of failing to update and implement more ambitious NDCs are dire. Without robust climate action, the global community faces a future of severe weather events, rising sea levels, and more frequent and intense natural disasters. According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a 3-degree rise in global temperature could have catastrophic effects on ecosystems, biodiversity, and human societies, especially in Africa, where millions of people are already living on the climate change frontline. These impacts could undo years of development progress, exacerbate poverty, and deepen inequality.

Furthermore, a lack of progress in implementing the Paris Agreement’s goals poses a significant challenge to achieving climate justice. Developing nations, particularly in Africa, are among the hardest hit by climate change, despite contributing the least to global emissions. As the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow in 2021 emphasized, the developed world must increase financial support for climate mitigation and adaptation in the Global South. ACPC Director pointed out, “It is not enough to simply submit NDCs. Adequate financing is essential to ensure that countries can implement their plans. This includes climate finance from both public and private sectors, as well as international cooperation.”

Looking Ahead: The Road to COP30

The urgency is clear. By September 2025, all parties to the Paris Agreement must submit their updated NDCs to be included in the NDC Synthesis Report, which will be published ahead of COP30 in Brazil in 2026. As part of its commitment, ACPC will continue to support African nations in formulating more ambitious climate plans and aligning them with the 1.5°C trajectory. This includes working with governments to ensure that their plans are consistent with the findings of GST1, which calls for greater emissions reductions, as well as sustainable financing for the implementation of these plans.

Looking ahead to COP30, there is still time for countries to step up their climate efforts. However, the window for action is closing rapidly. The world is at a critical juncture, and countries must now show the leadership needed to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals and avoid the catastrophic effects of a climate crisis.